Change and Continuity in the 21st General Election

Abstract

This study aims to ascertain change and continuity in the 21st General Election, focusing on electoral reform, regional cleavage, and realignment. It concludes that the semi-MMP combines the worst defects of both proportional and majoritarian electoral systems: it aggravated the disproportionality between votes and seats and would jeopardize government accountability by increasing the number of veto players. More importantly, the new electoral system distorts the election environment disastrously by making the electoral formula in the PR tier almost incomprehensible and creating decoy parties. The study also maintains that the birthplace-based regionalism or the regional cleavage persist as the only full cleavage with the demographic-value-party as core elements. Yet it observes another divergent voting behavior between North and South Yeungnam, signaling a change in the empirical or demographic element of the regional cleavage. Finally, it notices a new, winning coalition that consists of Honam natives, younger voters, and those who live in capital and metropolitan areas, has been building for a liberal alliance. This appears a process of a gradual, incremental and ideology-driven realignment with conflict extension.