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California Climate and Tree Growth : A Long-Term Analysis

Authors
유승직황윤섭
Issue Date
Dec-2008
Publisher
사회과학연구원
Citation
사회과학연구, v.34, no.3, pp 1 - 27
Pages
27
Journal Title
사회과학연구
Volume
34
Number
3
Start Page
1
End Page
27
URI
https://scholarworks.sookmyung.ac.kr/handle/2020.sw.sookmyung/148148
DOI
10.15820/khjss.2008.34.3.001
ISSN
12267546
Abstract
We are to detect and identify the stochastic process of the large scale treering data series spanning more than 1000 years. We have applied the various time series analysing methods such as ARIMA and State Space Model, but estimation of transition probabilities as well as unknown state from the known information are explored. In addition we apply same model, if possible, by varying sample period to show how the result of identification from the sample is sensitive to the inference period and is different from each other. We found that large scale treering data series show abrupt changes in states, justifying the use of time series analyses allowing abrupt state changes. The length of sample and the choice of the time series analysis are the critical in making inference about the past behavior of the series and in making forecast in the future. Researchers need to pay special attention in choice of the methods consistent with the purpose of the studdy.
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TESOL·국제학대학원 (기후환경융합학과)
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