California Climate and Tree Growth : A Long-Term Analysis
- Authors
- 유승직; 황윤섭
- Issue Date
- Dec-2008
- Publisher
- 사회과학연구원
- Citation
- 사회과학연구, v.34, no.3, pp 1 - 27
- Pages
- 27
- Journal Title
- 사회과학연구
- Volume
- 34
- Number
- 3
- Start Page
- 1
- End Page
- 27
- URI
- https://scholarworks.sookmyung.ac.kr/handle/2020.sw.sookmyung/148148
- DOI
- 10.15820/khjss.2008.34.3.001
- ISSN
- 12267546
- Abstract
- We are to detect and identify the stochastic process of the large scale treering data
series spanning more than 1000 years. We have applied the various time series analysing
methods such as ARIMA and State Space Model, but estimation of transition probabilities
as well as unknown state from the known information are explored. In addition
we apply same model, if possible, by varying sample period to show how the result of
identification from the sample is sensitive to the inference period and is different from
each other.
We found that large scale treering data series show abrupt changes in states, justifying
the use of time series analyses allowing abrupt state changes. The length of sample and
the choice of the time series analysis are the critical in making inference about the past
behavior of the series and in making forecast in the future. Researchers need to pay special
attention in choice of the methods consistent with the purpose of the studdy.
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Collections - TESOL·국제학대학원 > 기후환경융합학과 > 1. Journal Articles
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