2050 탄소중립 시나리오에 따른 전환부문의 온실가스 배출량 및 배출원단위 경로 연구

Abstract

In this study, we define three 2050 carbon-neutral scenarios and analyze their generation mixes, greenhouse gas emissions, and emission intensity pathways. Scenarios A and B represent the 2050 carbon-neutral scenarios and the updated 2030 NDC announced in 2021. Scenario C reflects the current nuclear power plant expansion policy. Scenarios announced by the government only contain snapshots of 2050 and 2030; in this study, we derive yearly pathways. As a result, the proportions of nuclear power and renewable energy in 2050 in scenario C, to which the expansion of nuclear power is applied, are expected to be 12.7% and 55.8%, respectively. In addition, in terms of cumulative emissions, scenario A, which excludes CCS, had the highest emissions. If the storage space and economic feasibility of CCS can be secured, CCS could play a role in carbon neutrality. Greenhouse gas emission intensities decrease almost linearly until they near zero by 2050, although there are slight differences among scenarios. Safe electrification of the final energy demand sector could be achieved in 2032, when the emission intensity per electricity consumption is predicted to be 0.2 tCO2eq./MWh.