나일 유역 분쟁과 수단 내전: 수자원 갈등을 중심으로

Abstract

There has been a paucity of theory within the water sector that is capable of explaining and predicting what the critical elements of social and political stability are. It is known, for example, that there is an increase in water scarcity in general at the global level, and that this is affecting the developing world. It can therefore be anticipated that this increased water scarcity will impact in some form or other on social and political stability within these developing states, but it is not known exactly where or how this will manifest itself. Existing research tends to have focused on water as a resource. This can be understood as being a first-order analysis of water as a resource, which can be misleading however, as it tends to take researchers in the wrong direction. A more fruitful area of research is that which focuses on the ability of social entity to cope with the increasing demands caused by water scarcity. This can be called a second-order scarcity of social resources, which gives a far better insight into the dynamics at work within the context of social stability in developing countries. Although the civil war in Sudan and international conflict potential in Nile Basin are one of the longest ongoing ecological conflicts in Africa, it has not attracted much international attention. This paper examines ecological background of both internal and external conflicts of Sudan with the research toolkit of the second-order scarcity of social resources.