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COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19

Other Titles
Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19
Authors
기한정김지은김소희박주원이주행김양진
Issue Date
Dec-2020
Publisher
한국통계학회
Keywords
case fatality rate; cure rate; incubation time; interval censoring; pandemic; COVID19; 대유행병; 잠복기간; 구간 중도 절단; 경쟁 위험 모형; 치사율; 치유율
Citation
응용통계연구, v.33, no.6, pp 777 - 789
Pages
13
Journal Title
응용통계연구
Volume
33
Number
6
Start Page
777
End Page
789
URI
https://scholarworks.sookmyung.ac.kr/handle/2020.sw.sookmyung/983
DOI
10.5351/KJAS.2020.36.6.777
ISSN
1225-066X
2383-5818
Abstract
COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.
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