ScholarWorks@숙명여자대학교

초록

How much will the future resemble the past? To what extent will three countriesin Northeast Asia go back to the future? Will there be a war between the UnitedStates and China? Will there be second Korean War that invites all neighboringstates with potential use of nuclear bomb? How can we sustain the peace on theKorean peninsula? Will there be more arms spending and muscle flexing amongstake holders in the region even though we are miraculously beginning the peacefulera by agreeing to denuclearization of the Korean peninsular? The bipolar world isover, yet it is not going to be replaced by a unipolar world of American hegemonyor by so-called G2 powers namely the United States and China This study is focusing on why we failed to construct the security architecture in the region andwhat lessons we can learn from the past experiences. In order for us to be able toweathering the storms in the future, this study will end with observation that wemust strengthen the ROK-US alliance and prepare for new threats. How much will the future resemble the past? To what extent will three countriesin Northeast Asia go back to the future? Will there be a war between the UnitedStates and China? Will there be second Korean War that invites all neighboringstates with potential use of nuclear bomb? Will there be more arms spending andmuscle flexing among stake holders in the region even though we are not fall intothe war? The bipolar world is over, yet it is not going to be replaced by a unipolarworld of American hegemony nor by so-called G2 powers, namely the United Statesand China. The world is multipolar, although it is quite different from a classicalform of multi-polarity we have seen in the 18th century in Europe. Certainly, neo-isolationism has come back to the global politics and there will bea diffusion of power as nationalism grows, but interdependence increases and atransactional actors will be even more influential. The world we are living is notclean and neat, but somehow we are able to manage the crises and we are luckyenough not falling into the great war or World War III. Can we be so certain thatwe will be able to weathering the storms in the future as we have been successfulafter World War II?

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