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COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용
Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19
- 기한정;
- 김지은;
- 김소희;
- 박주원;
- 이주행;
- ... 김양진
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0초록
COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.
키워드
case fatality rate; cure rate; incubation time; interval censoring; pandemic; COVID19; 대유행병; 잠복기간; 구간 중도 절단; 경쟁 위험 모형; 치사율; 치유율
- 제목
- COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용
- 제목 (타언어)
- Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19
- 저자
- 기한정; 김지은; 김소희; 박주원; 이주행; 김양진
- 발행일
- 2020-12
- 저널명
- 응용통계연구
- 권
- 33
- 호
- 6
- 페이지
- 777 ~ 789