A Study on the Early Warning Indicators of Currency Crisis: A Regional Perspective

초록

This paper mainly focuses on the signals approach to Korean currency crisis and compare the results with those of OLS and logit estimation. Chronological crisis episode of Korea and related regional data are used in the research. Both results tell us that indicators and determinants of currency crisis should consider regional characteristics and country specific results, rather than general results, are more useful to policymakers and market participants. Unlike the cross-section analysis, 15 indicators, including export concentration ratio, are turned out to have predictive power. The composite index for currency crisis also provides useful information in general. © 2004, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. All rights reserved.

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