핵연료 재처리 선택이 핵잠재력과 백엔드 리스크에 미치는 영향: 재처리 국가(일본·프랑스)와 직접처분 국가(독일·스웨덴)의 비교 분석

초록

This study presents a comparative analysis of how spent nuclear fuel reprocessing impacts a nation's latent nuclear capabilities, nuclear hedging capacity, back-end risk governance, and strategic autonomy within alliances. Utilizing a restricted Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) framework—with France, a Nuclear Weapon State under the NPT, serving as a baseline control case—the study examines the relationship between reprocessing policies and security outcomes by comparing reprocessing states (Japan and France) with direct disposal states (Germany and Sweden). The findings indicate that the operational status of reprocessing facilities and direct access to separated plutonium are critical conditions that significantly elevate material latent nuclear capability via the plutonium pathway, whereas enrichment should be treated as a distinct uranium pathway. Japan maintains high material latency through its licensed reprocessing authority and substantial stockpiles of separated plutonium, despite its reliance on the Three Non-Nuclear Principles and the U.S. extended deterrence. Although France’s commercial reprocessing infrastructure constitutes an integral part of its large-scale nuclear industry, it must be distinguished from the military fuel cycle that directly sustains its independent nuclear deterrent. Conversely, Germany and Sweden reduced their plutonium-pathway options and bolstered procedural credibility by abandoning reprocessing in favor of direct disposal; however, these security outcomes must be distinguished from the military deterrence provided by alliances such as NATO. Regarding South Korea, reflecting the initiation of bilateral consultation procedures on civil enrichment and reprocessing following the 2025 ROK–U.S. Joint Fact Sheet—while noting that comprehensive authorization remains unconfirmed—this study suggests strategically aligning spent fuel policy with extended deterrence consultations, while strictly separating their legal and military functions. Future research should expand to a five-country comparative study that formally incorporates South Korea as a core case.

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