한국 장기 에너지 전망을 위한 사회경제 발전경로 내러티브의 정량화 연구

초록

This study quantifies socioeconomic narratives to establish a robust foundation for South Korea’s long-term energy outlook. We developed three scenario-based pathways—Sustainable (SEP1), Trend (SEP2), and Fragmented (SEP3)—by integrating global standards with domestic contexts. We derived macroeconomic growth paths and projected industrial structural shifts, differentiating emerging sectors (ICT, semiconductors) from traditional industries (steel, petrochemicals). By translating qualitative narratives into quantitative data, this research provides a transparent and standardized baseline for end-use energy demand modeling and climate policy analysis. Ultimately, this study contributes to the field by bridging the gap between narrative-driven visions and quantitative modeling, offering a systematic framework for navigating future uncertainties in the energy transition.

키워드