ScholarWorks@숙명여자대학교

초록

This study suggests a top-down projection model for final energy demand of major energy sources in Korea. Taking the nonstationarity of energy demand as a time series into account, an error-correction model is utilized with a cointegrating relationship among income per capita, total factor productivity and energy price. Despite lack of robustness in some cointegration test, estimation results of the model are consistent with economic theory. Top-down projection results of the model also performs well enough to show potential as a supplementary tool for the bottom-up projections of the current basic energy plan.

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