지방교육재정의 수급 전망과 향후 과제

초록

This study aims to systematically analyze the current status and supply-demand outlook of local education finances—the foundation of preschool, elementary, and secondary education—over the next decade (2025–2034) and propose improvement tasks. To this end, it first analyzed changes in the educational environment and conditions based on student enrollment projections, then estimated financial requirements based on these projected changes. Next, the scale of resources was estimated based on changes in the sources affecting the size of Local Education Finance Grants, and the supply and demand outlook for education finance was comprehensively examined. The research results show that, when synthesizing the projected local education finance resource requirements for the next 10 years, the demand will increase from approximately 98 trillion won in 2026 to approximately 112 trillion won to approximately 113 trillion won in 2034. The average annual amount required is estimated to be approximately 103 trillion won to 104 trillion won. These results indicate that educational funding demand can continue to increase even with a decline in the school-age population. Educational funding requirements are not determined proportionally to the school-age population because personnel expenses, which account for over 50% of local education finances, do not decrease proportionally. It is difficult to restructure a large number of teaching staff, who are public servants. Even if the number of teaching staff is reduced based on the school-age population, the total personnel costs could increase due to improvements in public servant compensation rates. Meanwhile, regarding the financial requirements resulting from the introduction of the Childcare Integration Policy, a minimum estimation method based on support for daycare centers was applied. Therefore, if the scope of childcare integration tasks expands in the future, the financial requirements could increase by approximately 1 trillion won.

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