ScholarWorks@숙명여자대학교

초록

The projection of US military operations in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait can be inferred from recent wargaming studies and historical case analyses. From these projections, we anticipate the demands the US might place on its allies and the changes in the deployment of US Forces Korea (USFK) within the Korean Peninsula. As a result, it is likely that USFK fighter jets and mobile missile defense units would be relocated outside the peninsula in the event of a contingency, and there would be requests for support from the South Korean Navy, Air Force, and ISR assets. If the conflict prolongs and escalates to a nuclear crisis, several developments can be expected: (1) Increased strategic flexibility of US forces stationed in the Western Pacific, including those in Korea, (2) Integration of South Korea’s arms production capabilities into the US-led defense industry supply chain, (3) Probability of strategic provocations by North Korea, leveraging a perceived weakening of extended deterrence commitments. In this sense, for South Korean security, it is crucial to formulate a strategic plan to consultate with the US in preparation for a potential Taiwan Strait contingency, as well as to prepare for North Korea’s strategic provocations.

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