ScholarWorks@숙명여자대학교

초록

This paper outlines studies that designed and analyzed multiple scenarios, each consisting of socioeconomic development paths and policy instrument paths, to address the uncertainties surrounding future climate change and energy prospects. This study selected three future socioeconomic development paths: Sustainable-High growth (SEP1), Maintaining Trend-Moderate growth (SEP2), and Divided conflict-Low growth (SEP3). For each socioeconomic development path, the study analyzed a baseline policy path, where current climate and energy policies are maintained, and a maximum reduction policy path, where policies undergo drastic changes. In the maximum reduction policy path, energy demand in 2060 is projected to be 262-309 Mtoe/yr, similar to the baseline policy path, while greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease significantly, to 104-106MtCO2e/yr. The narrative of these socioeconomic development paths demonstrates that despite the increased energy demand resulting from high growth, the most significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved through the active adoption of policy instruments. This scenario analysis can contribute to setting national greenhouse gas reduction targets by considering future uncertainties and the internal interconnections of the energy sector, and can be utilized in establishing various basic energy plans.

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