Predictors of Kim Jong-il's On-the-Spot Guidance under Military-First Politics

Abstract

North Korean "military-first politics" is thought to be the cause of significant change in Kim Jong-il's on-the-spot guidance activities, with increased visits to the military sector. The frequency of Kim's military inspections, however, has not actually been constant, but has fluctuated over time, implying that the priority of the Korean People's Army has risen and fallen under military-first politics. This paper applies a predictive model, providing an estimate of the frequency of the North Korean leader's on-the-spot guidance to the military sector and other sectors, respectively.