Assessing carbon neutrality pathways: Prerequisites and mitigation potential of power-to-X in the chemical sector of South Korea

Abstract

Achieving carbon neutrality without innovative mitigation measures can be challenging. Power-to-X (P2X), a technology for capturing and utilizing carbon, has become an emerging solution for offsetting CO2 emissions. However, the mitigation potential of P2X is dependent on various factors, and P2X cannot perform a mitigation role with the national electric grid in our scenario analysis. This study aims to examine the requirements for P2X to achieve carbon neutrality. We establish a mathematical mechanism to assess the mitigation potential of P2X and examine the role of various factors in reducing GHG emissions. We found that energy share in electricity production decides the pace of emission reduction; the cleaner the energy share, the faster the emissions reach the inflection point of the mitigation pathways. Adoption rate also plays a key role to amplify inclination of emission paths. As a result, P2X could immensely reduce CO2 emissions regardless of adoption rates, if the clean energy share is above 80% without coal. The relationship between these factors and mitigation potential of P2X concludes that this emerging technology is a double-edged sword and requires meticulous planning for its adoption.