Forecasting Korean Stock Returns with Machine Learning

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the predictive power of financial variables by using various machine learning methods. An analysis is conducted on data for the Korean stock market, which is representative of emerging markets, over 32 years from 1987 to 2018. The study shows that median regression is a more efficient tool than mean regressionin the presence of potential heterogeneity of stocks, significantly improving performance in terms of average realized monthly return. This suggests that median regression can have better predictive performance in emerging markets where there are likely to be outliers. Additionally, a gradient boosting machine (GBM) is found to be better than a traditional linear model both in prediction accuracy and portfolio performance. The hedged return from GBM is on average 2.89% per month with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.93 in the median regression. The neural network (NN) is also tested and shown to perform best when the number of hidden layers is two or three. Finally, we evaluatea list of predictor variables with various measures of variable importance. Variables of risk, price trend and liquidity are found to serve as important predictors.