COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19
- Other Titles
- Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19
- Authors
- 기한정; 김지은; 김소희; 박주원; 이주행; 김양진
- Issue Date
- Dec-2020
- Publisher
- 한국통계학회
- Keywords
- case fatality rate; cure rate; incubation time; interval censoring; pandemic; COVID19; 대유행병; 잠복기간; 구간 중도 절단; 경쟁 위험 모형; 치사율; 치유율
- Citation
- 응용통계연구, v.33, no.6, pp 777 - 789
- Pages
- 13
- Journal Title
- 응용통계연구
- Volume
- 33
- Number
- 6
- Start Page
- 777
- End Page
- 789
- URI
- https://scholarworks.sookmyung.ac.kr/handle/2020.sw.sookmyung/983
- DOI
- 10.5351/KJAS.2020.36.6.777
- ISSN
- 1225-066X
2383-5818
- Abstract
- COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.
- Files in This Item
-
Go to Link
- Appears in
Collections - 이과대학 > 통계학과 > 1. Journal Articles
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.