Modeling the Growth/No Growth Boundaries of Listeria monocytogenes Post-Processing Contamination on Frankfurters and Bologna Treated with Lactic Acid

Abstract

This study developed models to predict lactic acid concentration, dipping time, and storage temperature combinations determining growth/no-growth interfaces of Listeria monocytogenes at desired probabilities on bologna and frankfurters. L. monocytogenes was inoculated on bologna and frankfurters, and 75 combinations of lactic acid concentrations, dipping times, and storage temperatures were tested. Samples were stored in vacuum packages for up to 60 days, and bacterial populations were enumerated on tryptic soy agar plus 0.6% yeast extract and Palcam agar on day zero and at the end point of storage. The combinations that allowed L. monocytogenes increases of ≥1 log CFU/cm2 were assigned the value of 1 (growth), and the combinations that had increases of <l log CFU/cm2 were given the value of 0 (no growth). These binary growth response data were fitted to logistic regression to develop a model predicting probabilities of growth. Validation with existing data and various indices showed acceptable model performance. Thus, the models developed in this study may be useful in determining probabilities of growth and in selecting lactic acid concentrations and dipping times to control L. monocytogenes growth on bologna and frankfurters, while the procedures followed may also be used to develop models for other products, conditions, or pathogens.