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Application of Probabilistic Model to Calculate Probabilities of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Growth on Polyethylene Cutting Board

Authors
Lee, Joo-YeonSuk, Hee-JinLee, HeeyoungLee, SoominYoon, Yohan
Issue Date
Feb-2012
Publisher
KOREAN SOC FOOD SCIENCE ANIMAL RESOURCES
Keywords
Escherichia coli O157:H7; probabilistic model; predictive model; cutting board
Citation
KOREAN JOURNAL FOR FOOD SCIENCE OF ANIMAL RESOURCES, v.32, no.1, pp.62 - 67
Journal Title
KOREAN JOURNAL FOR FOOD SCIENCE OF ANIMAL RESOURCES
Volume
32
Number
1
Start Page
62
End Page
67
URI
https://scholarworks.sookmyung.ac.kr/handle/2020.sw.sookmyung/6814
DOI
10.5851/kosfa.2012.32.1.62
ISSN
1225-8563
Abstract
This study calculated kinetic parameters of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and developed a probabilistic model to estimate growth probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 on polyethylene cutting boards as a function of temperature and time. The surfaces of polyethylene coupons (3x5 cm) were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 NCCP11142 at 4 Log CFU/cm(2). The coupons were stored at 13 to 35 degrees C for 12 h, and cell counts of E. coli O157:H7 were enumerated on McConkey II with sorbitol agar every 2 h. Kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate, Log CFU/cm(2)/h; lag phase duration, h; lower asymptote, Log CFU/cm(2); upper asymptote, Log CFU/cm(2)) were calculated with the modified Gompertz model. Of 56 combinations (temperature x time), the combinations that had >= 0.5 Log CFU/cm(2) of bacterial growth were designated with the value of 1, and the combinations that had increases of <0.5 Log CFU/cm(2) were given the value 0. These growth response data were fitted to the logistic regression to develop the model predicting probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Specific growth rate and growth data showed that E. coli O157:H7 cells were grown at 28-35 degrees C, but there were no obvious growth of the pathogen below 25 degrees C. Moreover, the developed probabilistic model showed acceptable performance to calculate growth probability of E. coli O157:H7. Therefore, the results should be useful in determining upper limits of working temperature and time, inhibiting E. coli O157:H7 growth on polyethylene cutting board.
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